America’s Position in a Global Economy:?
A Case for the Grand Alliance
E Nelson Jr.
In an ever more
connected and globalized world, the United States should be prudent concerning
its relationship with China and the future of this relationship.?China
is growing by leaps and bounds each year and is on track to surpass the United States
in military and economic strength.?As
time goes on it will be important for the United States to look for new allies
in the global system in order to create a strong pillar to counter-act any
negative events in the system.?While China is on
course to take over the lead in the world system, it is not certain as to how
they will lead.?Right now China is not a
democracy, which creates an inherently unstable pillar for the world
system.?Couple this with the weakening
of the United States,
and any major problem in the system might bring the whole thing down.?The true motives of the Chinese regime are
yet to be realized as well.?While they
have not behaved in an aggressive manor internationally up to now does not
guarantee that the same holds true for the future.?Carlo Pelanda in “The Grand Alliance?
presents a possible solution to these types of problems.?The alliance is a way for the democracies of
the world to strengthen their own positions and also keep the Chinese in
check.?This is not to say that it is an
aggressive alliance or partnership bent on the collapse of the Chinese but more
of a safety measure.?An alliance will provide
strength to counter unwanted Chinese moves, and in the event of an internal
collapse of the Chinese regime, it will allow for better management of that
the past three decades the Chinese have experienced extreme growth.?On average the Chinese have experienced
growth at an average rate of 10% a year.?
China has become a
place to manufacture goods for many countries, especially the United States.?This situation itself presents a problem for
the world system.?A significant recession
in one of these markets could spell trouble for other markets.?As China
has grown, it has come to matter much more to the rest of the world, and the
fate of the world economy now hinges not just on America,
but also on China’s
economic fitness continuing over at least the next two years.?The timeframe presented by the economist is
based on the current American market and the housing situation that the market
is experiencing today.?It is however
somewhat short sighted and is only taking economic factors and trends from
other nations into effect.
?/span>One weakness of the current Chinese economy is
their inflation rate.?Current inflation
rates in China
have increased since last year, but this is not the main issue.?The key to the inflation increase is that it
is due entirely to a rise in food prices.?Currently the inflation rate in the country
is 6.5% but when food is taken out of the equation, inflation is only
0.9%.?The food problem may be the result
of increasing population and a shortage of water in the Northern plain of
China.?In the past in this area farmers
had compensated for the region’s limited annual rainfall by planting only three
crops every two years.?After government
policies called for increased production the farmers had to plant a second
annual crop, usually winter wheat, which requires a lot of water.?The water problem is so bad that the
government has started pipeline projects that will pump water from the South to
the North.?However, much of the water in
the South is polluted, and even in the North, the cities dump wastewater into
the same water systems used by the farmers.?
The water usage policies of the Chinese show the reckless side to the
government itself.?It is destroying a
natural resource to apply a temporary fix to growing problems.?
issue regarding the Chinese economy is the number of product recalls that have
occurred this year.?Millions of toys,
animal foods, drugs, and foods have been recalled.?The Chinese export 40% of their goods to the United States
and have expressed little remorse for the product recalls this year.?A significant recent portion of the recalls
seems to center around the usage of lead paint.?
Lead paint has been banned in the United States for many
decades.?Recently 550,000 toys were
recalled.?RC2 recalled 200,000 toys
because the paint contained levels of lead that violate federal standards.?Target also is recalling 350,000 gardening
toys because of excessive lead levels.?These lead paint problems arise from the toys
made in China and 80% of the
toys sold in the United States
are made in China.?Hopefully the United States consumers will
demonstrate their opinion to the Chinese this holiday season by not buying
Chinese goods.?But the likelihood that
the Chinese will show any culpability for this problem is unlikely.?This is not a situation in which the market
reacts and the products will become safer or better.?The Chinese may fix the lead paint problem
but what other products will be recalled in the future because of safety
issues??In the future China will also
be more powerful and perhaps even more arrogant.?With the present situation they did not
apologize for the products, but had the American company apologize for the
transgression.?This constitutes economic
blackmail.?The likelihood that Mattel
itself is directly responsible for this is ludicrous.?The largest toy maker has no motive to
sabotage itself in this manner, but as China grows stronger substances
such as lead paint end up in our children’s toys.?Mattel’s vice president for worldwide
operations, Thomas Debrowski, had to apologize to China for harming the reputation of
Chinese manufacturers.?This is a scary road to travel down for the United States
and its Multi-National Companies.?The
Chinese have demonstrated that they are willing to blackmail companies so that
the companies can continue to operate in China. With a stronger China in the
future, it might be possible for the Chinese to blackmail entire countries.
The Chinese are
also aggressively building up their military.?
The Chinese are modernizing their military and stating that there is no
need for concern.?The Pentagon has been
surprised by the rate at which the Chinese have been able to develop.?The Pentagon admits that several aspects of China’s military development have surprised U.S. analysts,
including the pace and scope of its strategic forces modernization.?China is also in the process of
modernizing its ICBMs.?Along with the
is currently reevaluating its “no first use policy.?a style='mso-footnote-id:
ftn8' href="#_ftn8" name="_ftnref8" title="">?This policy will change China’s strategic position in the region and
even in a broader spectrum since it has the ability to strike the United States
with its Missiles.?The increase in
missiles shows that China
is possibly willing to take a more aggressive military stand in the
future.?The grim situation that Taiwan faces is
a step in their emerging aggressiveness.?
Military forces in the region have tipped in favor of the Chinese, and a
report by the Pentagon estimates that China
has 710 to 790 ballistic missiles trained on Taiwan.?The likelihood that the United States and China would go to war is
remote.?However, it is not uncommon for
large powers to be dragged into open conflict as a result of a smaller nation
being attacked or doing the attacking.?
The United States has
pledged support to Taiwan,
and the Defense Department is mandated to provide military support under the
Taiwan Relations Act.?China
maintains claim to Taiwan,
and the United States and China have been
on the verge of war regarding the island nation.?The true motives of the Chinese have yet to
be divulged.?Some insight could be
gained by something that Chinese General Liu has said, “When a nation grows
strong enough, it practices hegemony...geography is destiny, when a country
begins to rise, it should first set itself in an invincible position.?a
style='mso-footnote-id:ftn11' href="#_ftn11" name="_ftnref11" title="">?These words are interesting, and what are the
true intentions of the Chinese??Another
interesting statement concerning China’s
improved relation with Muslim countries was described as “an excellent move
should do what the West fears.?a style='mso-footnote-id:ftn12' href="#_ftn12"
name="_ftnref12" title="">?The Chinese are expanding their military at
great rates and forming friendships with the countries that tend to be
anti-American.?The real reason for this
is yet to be uncovered or expressed.
The United States is in a position where something
proactive needs to be done, or it will be pushed around by China.?A collapsed Chinese economy would spell doom
for the American market and the global market, allowing the Chinese to
blackmail the world into supporting them.?
This is a remote scenario, but the Chinese are weak internally.?While the Chinese people are making better
wages than they were thirty years ago, they are not seeing better treatment
from their government.?Worker riots are
common in China,
and the Chinese have a strong Secret Police force to put down any political
unrest.?However, China exists
and grows in the information age, and as time goes on will start to lose
control over its people.?The government
can censor, as much as possible, but as technology progresses this will become
a much tougher job.?The civil unrest
caused by labor or food riots can be dangerous to the regime and might cause
is so dependent on Chinese exports that it would cripple America at the
same time.?The only way for America to
minimize the effects of a collapse would be to have a strong democratic economy
to fall back on and pick up the slack.?
The American economy itself is not strong enough for the task, but the
integration of democracies would be.?The
Euro-American core of the Grand Alliance would make it attractive to other
democracies according to Carlo Pelanda.?
United, the Democracies of the World can stand.?While a collapse is remote, the principle
will strain relations with the west is not.?
As time goes by the Chinese are entering areas of the world not friendly
to the West and are positioning themselves to take over the world system.?Eventually the Chinese will be able to change
the rules of the system since they will be more powerful militarily and
economically than any single nation, but not more powerful than a group of
democracies.?The democracies of the
world, working together and united, will not only be able to save themselves
from trouble but also promote their system against any opposing system.?The important thing to consider however is in
what manner the Chinese should be viewed.?
Treating China as an
enemy now may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, but America and the Europeans should
still prepare for this eventuality.?
While the likelihood of war between the two nations is a very remote
scenario, the United States
should look to its friends in the system now to prevent disaster in the future.